Transition and forecast for land leasing market (total value of land leasing transactions)
- After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the understanding of the stability of land leasing has spread, and the value of land leasing transactions has increased by about 6.3 times in 12 years from 2009.
- On the other hand, land leasing only accounts for 2.3% (617.1 billion yen1) of the total assets acquired by J-REITs (total value) of 26.6 trillion yen 1, and 7.0% (391.1 billion yen 2) of the total assets acquired by private REITs of 5.5 trillion yen, so there is room for further expansion of the land leasing market.
- The COVID-19 pandemic caused focus to once again be placed on the stability of land leasing. REITs and private funds are tending to increase investment in land leasing, and further expansion of the market size is expected in the future.
Notice
1. Cumulative total of transactions as of the end of June 2023. Transfer results are not taken into account. (Source: Total amount:ARES) "J-REIT Databook", Leasehold land: J-REIT publicized cases
2. Assets held as of June 30, 2023. Transfer record (if any) is taken into account. (Source: ARES "Private REIT Quarterly")
* Calculation for the total transaction amount of land leasing from 2001 to 2022 is based on published transaction cases
* The average year-on-year growth rate of total land leasing transactions from 2013 to 2026 (amount: +14.3%, number of transactions: +20.2%) remains at the same level. We are forecasting based on the assumption that the transaction amount of land leasing will continue to grow after 2023.
* When calculating the land leasing market size, we conservatively assumed the ratio of publicized transaction cases using data such as the Property Price Index of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, and then calculated the transaction amount including undisclosed cases.
* The figures in these graphs were calculated by the Japan Real Estate Institute using the above assumptions.These projections are not guarantees concerning the future growth of the leased land market in Japan.
